World Cup 2026 — Title Race
Football · World Cup 2026 · Champion Probability
Who’s most likely to lift the trophy?
A 100,000-tournament Monte Carlo simulation built on panna’s match-prediction model, played on FIFA’s official bracket and re-run live in your browser: finished games are baked in to their real result, and while a game is in progress its odds update every minute from the live score. The same engine powers the interactive Simulator. (The published full-model wc2026_simulation.parquet is the fallback if the live feed is unavailable.)
The favourites
Champion probability from the latest 100,000-tournament simulation. Bars are drawn on a fixed 0–25% scale — even the favourite is far from a lock — and the fair odds carry no bookmaker margin.
Every team, every round
All 48 teams' chances of reaching each stage, from the same simulation. Sort any column, or download the CSV from the table toolbar.