World Cup 2026 — Simulator
Football · World Cup 2026 · Interactive Simulator
What if? Run the tournament yourself
Every click re-runs the tournament in your browser — a fast 10,000-run estimate appears first, then refines live to 100,000 (20,000 on browsers without Web Worker support). Lock a group result (home / draw / away) or force a team through a knockout round, and every probability on the page — group standings, stage odds, likely matchups — recomputes with your results fixed.
Group stage: click 1 / X / 2 next to a fixture to lock home win / draw / away win — click again to unlock. Finished games arrive already locked to their real result; unlock or override them to explore what-ifs. Knockout: click a team in the bracket to force them through that round. The simulator re-runs the full tournament with your results fixed and updates every number. Scorelines are drawn from the model's predicted goals; knockout ties use the published simulation's own pairwise probabilities (all 1,128 possible ties, with Tiento as the fallback), and teams run slightly hot — beating the model's expected scoreline in the groups warms a side's knockout strength (underperforming cools it), and knockout winners keep heating. Baselines track the published Title Race simulation to within a couple of points.