Commonwealth Games 2026
Multi-sport · Commonwealth Games 2026 · Glasgow
Commonwealth Games 2026
We published medal probabilities for 36 athletics events before the first race, and score ourselves against the results here.
The model’s report card
Probabilities were locked before competition began and are scored against finals as they finish. Skill is measured against a uniform-within-race baseline: 0 means the model knew nothing more than “everyone in this field is equally likely”, 1 would be perfection.
Medal table
Two different things, kept apart on purpose. The first is the medal table as awarded. The second counts only the individual athletics events the model predicted, so that expected and actual are measured over exactly the same events and can honestly be compared.