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How this works

Tennis · Draw Simulator

How this works. Every match in the draw is played out, thousands of times over. Matches already finished are locked to their real result; the rest are decided on player strength, and each player’s numbers are simply how often they got that far. Pick anyone in the bracket and the whole thing re-runs with that result assumed, which is why locking a first-round winner moves the title odds too.

The strength behind each match is a Bradley-Terry rating, which is not the same model that produces the site’s own published odds elsewhere — that one weighs surface, form and head-to-head record as well. The two usually land within a few points of each other, and the line above the bracket says how far apart they are today.